If I Were the GM: Washington Nationals
The clear favorites to win the NL East again might arguably be the contender with the most concerns entering 2017. The roster has lots of star power highlighted by the best RH starter and two of the games most exciting, young players. Let's take a look at their projected lineup and rotation and then I will share what I would do if I were the GM to ensure a deep playoff run this year.
Lineup
Eaton CF
Turner SS
Harper RF
Murphy 2B
Rendon 3B
Zimmerman 1B
Werth LF
Norris C
Rotation: Scherzer - Strasburg - Gonzalez - Roark - Ross
Closer: Kelley Setup: Perez LH - Treinen RH
I put Eaton in the leadoff simply to break up the lefty swinging bats. Both Eaton and Turner posses good on base skills with base stealing capabilities. It has the potential to be a nice balanced lineup if Zimmerman and Werth can bounce back a bit. Having one of them, as a righty, hit in the four hole between Harper and Murphy would be ideal, but I wouldn't bet on that being the case. A lot is riding on the projected starters to capably handle their spots for the majority of the season. Zimmerman and Werth have a lengthy injury history, Eaton only started 43 games in CF last year, and Turner appeared at SS only 6 times in the bigs in 2016. Not to say that Eaton and Turner won't easily handle those spots, its just worth keeping an eye on their defense early on to see how they fare. The rotation has one of the best anchors, but counting on Strasburg to make 30+ starts is another scary thought for a contender, especially when most contender's back end of the rotations are more intimidating then the Nats. The bullpen is yet another huge question mark, one we will address as we look at the three key moves I would make.
Find a Closer
As it stands, Shawn Kelley is the closer for the Nationals this year. With the added emphasis on the back end of bullpens that contenders have been showing in recent years, I am quite surprised that the Nats have not made any notable additions or changes. Kelley might very well be an excellent closer this year, but for insurance purposes I would turn to the Rays to look at adding depth. I would trade for Brad Boxberger. He was often in the rumor mill early in the offseason, but has stayed put. He is one year removed from loggin a 40+ save season. Adding him would bring in a proven, capable late inning arm to compete with Kelley for the 9th inning. And if Kelley wins the job, you now have a proven 8th inning guy instead of having to rely on another young arm for that roll too. I think a package centered around the young catcher Pedro Severino would entice the Rays. Maybe even a 1 for 1 swap. Severino can handle the catching duties until Ramos is ready but would still provide a young insurance policy if Ramos can't stay behind the dish, and for sure after next year if he leaves as a free agent.
Go get Tony Watson
Watson is another bullpen arm that frequented early trade rumors and stayed home. He is arguably the best lefty reliever available now. The Pirates have plenty of other left handed relievers. The Nationals have already sent out many top prospects to improve their offense, and with their window for contention closing with aging veterans, injury concerns, and Harper's ever nearing free agency looming, the time is now for the Nationals to strike. Watson himself is another arm that has proven capable of shutting the door in the 9th. He has averaged 64 IP per season over his 6 year career with a 2.56 ERA while posting a sub 2.00 ERA 2 out of the last 3 seasons. Watson has a 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio for his career. Like Boxberger, bringing in Watson would add another good arm to the closer competition and instead of your 7-8-9 being Kelley, Oliver Perez, Blake Treinen it would now be Boxberger, Watson, Kelley. This group has a potential to be a dominant pen like the new monster pens that we have seen on teams making deep playoff pushes recently and would go a long way in shortening games to protect the suspect rotation beyond Scherzer.
Upgrade at Catcher
The other thing that really surprises me as I look at a team that expects to win a World Series soon is they are relying on Derek Norris and Jose Lobaton behind the dish. Obviously Matt Weiters is still available and he has played his whole career in close proximity to the Nationals so far, so adding him seems like a logical choice. However, I don't see the Nationals too eager to add payroll this year. They haven't to date at least. Next year they will have more money available with Werth and Gonzalez coming off the books, but their long term finances will be greatly impacted either way by Bryce Harper. So making a trade for a catcher is the logical choice.
TRADE Jose Lobaton + low level prospect for Miguel Montero
Montero makes for a nice platoon with Norris. He is a career .259/.342/.416 hitter. Lobaton is a career .226/.302/.331 hitter. He did hit .262 from the left side last year but that is his ceiling and Montero's floor. Montero's stats last year took a hit, but I believe playing time had a lot to do with that as he received his fewest amount of ABs in 8 years. Expecting Norris and Montero to rise back up to relative career norms after down 2016 seasons is more logical than expecting Lobaton to step up and produce in a platoon situation with consistancy.